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CFL Week 4 Betting Action
2010-07-23

The CFL schedule rolls on with another three games from Week 4 on Friday and Saturday. The resurgent Argonauts host British Columbia, Edmonton and Winnipeg will get together with each team trying to end losing skids, and Saskatchewan, the league’s lone remaining unbeaten team, will be in Calgary for a tough contest versus the 2-1 Stampeders. Let’s take a look at the games, and the current prices according to Sportsbook.com.

British Columbia (-2, 47) at Toronto, Friday, 5:30 p.m., TSN

Seems strange to think about now, but just a few short weeks ago, oddsmakers had Toronto (2-1) as 13.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Calgary. The Argos’ lines have dropped in each successive week since, as they’ve managed to put together upset wins over Winnipeg and Calgary. The latter was a home game and they’ll be back in Toronto for a second straight week with this game against B.C. (1-2)

The Argos still aren't getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers though. They're at home and riding a two-game winning streak, while the Lions have lost two in a row. Yet, it is the Lions that are the favored team.

With the total set at 47, it could be a low-scoring game as neither team has been able to move the ball, the Argos are last with 287 yards of offense per game and Lions aren't much better with just 330. In addition, the B.C. defense ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring allowed (21.0) and yards per play allowed (6.7).

Most of the trend angles seem to favor B.C. here, as the Lions have been very good against opportunistic teams and bouncing back from losses…

• BRITISH COLUMBIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +0.75 per game or better since 1996. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.7, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)

• Buono is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 33.5, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Toronto has forced nine turnovers in the first three games and if it can continue that pace has a good shot at winning this one as well.

Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN

The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.

The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.

Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.

There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:

• WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.

Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN

The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.

Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.

Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.

Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this StatFox Power Trend:

• CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)

However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.

The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.

CFL: CFL underdog winners of Week 1 square off (10:00 PM ET, TSN)
2010-07-09

Three of the opening weekend CFL games resulted in underdogs winning outright. Two of them, Saskatchewan and British Columbia square off in an intriguing Week 2 contest Saturday night. Of course, one of the teams has to move to the role of favorite for this game, and the host Lions do so, laying 2-points with a total of 52.5 according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a closer look at the game, which happens to be the FREE FoxSheet of the Week.

Saskatchewan comes off a season opening win over defending champ Montreal, a 54-51 double-overtime decision which may wind up going down as the game of the year when the season’s all said and done in November. In that game, Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant threw for 478 yards, leading an offensive outburst that produced 657 yards in all. Not bad for a team that went into the game as a 3.5-point home dog.

British Columbia’s opening win was more about old fashioned football, defense and the ground game, as the Lions knocked off Edmonton, 25-10, on the road. Running back Jamal Robertson led the charge, carrying the ball 11 times for 168 yards with a touchdown. B.C. was also a 3-1/2 point dog in Week 1. Perhaps most important to B.C.’s opening week effort was the solid performance put in by new quarterback Casey Printers, who threw for 218 yards on 20 for 34 passing.

In looking at some of the key bullet points from this report, you’ll find several key bits of info, all seeming to side with the visiting Roughriders.

First, take a look at this system indicating to fade home favorites off an early season divisional win:

• Play Against - Home favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The StatFox Game Estimator and Power Line both indicate that Saskatchewan should be about a 4-point road favorite here. The simulation calls for a 29-25 win on average. It is a rare but good sign when the two models agree exactly on the expected margin of win.

From a trend perspective, Saskatchewan has been good of the road versus division foes and in early season games:

• SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 22.6, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 0*)

• SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.1, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)

It sure appears from all intents and purposes that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com may have this one wrong on the side. As far as the total is concerned, note that Saskatchewan is on a 9-1 under run in road divisional games, and the last five games between these teams in B.C. have gone UNDER the total.

Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday night on TSN.

PROFITS DROP AT FOOTBALL POOLS GROUP
2010-04-05

Online casino, bingo and poker division underperforms

The predominently football pools betting group Sportech plc has unveiled a disappointing set of numbers that show the group's nlne casino poker and bingo operations have been underperforming, affecting overall operating profit, which fell by 14 percent to GBP 19.5 million over the year 2009. EBITDA dropped by 12 percent to GBP 14.7 million.

“That the decline in profitability is due primarily to our continued investment in establishing our online football pools business and the underperformance of our e-gaming business is testament to the resilience of the business in these tough times," said chief executive Ian Penrose, giving an assurance that strong action has been taken to address the underperformance.

Operating highlights included Sportech’s acquisition of Scientific Games Racing (SGR), the pari-mutuel technology provider and venue management business division of US giant Scientific Games, and a joint venture in India with Playwin, the Indian lottery and gaming brand owned by Essel Group (see previous InfoPowa reports).

“The strategic acquisition of SGR, together with our entry into the Indian market in partnership with one of India’s leading organisations, offers a unique opportunity to build a profit focused, global gaming business from strong pari-mutuel sporting and technology foundations,” said Penrose.

Sportech secured GBP 90.8 million in revised banking facilities valid to 2013 at the end of 2009, giving the group the flexibility to grow organically and make acquisitions, the chief executive said.

MAJOR NEW FOOTBALL ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN COMING FROM WILL HILL
2010-04-05

New advertising agency shows its paces

UK football fans can expect an avalanche of new William Hill advertisements this weekend as the company launches its latest football campaign - the first created by its new agency The Bank.

The marketing publication Drum reports that the London-based ad agency was tasked at the beginning of March with reinforcing the brand’s association with football ahead of this year’s World Cup in South Africa, with the campaign target the positioning of William Hill as the ‘home of betting’.

The creative idea will run across all media activity at regional level, handled by both The Bank and the in-house marketing department.

The television element was produced by the agency’s in-house production department and directed by creative founder Ian Cassie.

Kristof Fahy, brand and marketing director at William Hill, told The Drum: “We are trusted – with over 75 years of experience and a huge presence both on the high street and online. Simply put we are the home of betting in the UK and as such, we have a unique place in the minds of the British public.

"This next period of activity will coincide with our continued drive to offer customers an unrivalled experience online, on the phone and on the high street. The Bank showed the kind of strategic insight and clarity of creative thinking we are looking for.”

Cassie added: ”Our task has been to take all the great things that the William Hill brand stands for and re-present it in a creative idea that is unique, flexible and persuasive which can work as effectively in a TV spot as on a betting slip.”