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FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-3) at FLORIDA GATORS (9-2)
2011-12-22

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT

Line: Florida -8.5, Total: 137

It will be a classic battle of offense versus defense when high-scoring No. 11 Florida hosts defensive-minded Florida State on Thursday night.

The Gators are currently leading the nation in offensive efficiency and are third in points per game (86.1). That’s due to the fact that they’re making more threes (11.2 per game) than anyone in the nation. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are again an elite defensive team, third in the nation in defensive efficiency (they were first last year) and have allowed more than 70 points in a game just once so far this season. But while FSU has a size advantage and will surely try to control tempo, the Gators guards should be able to take over this game. FSU is extremely turnover-prone (18.7 per game) and doesn’t guard the three-point line well enough (UConn made 44% 3-pt FG in an overtime with over the Seminoles, and Michigan State hit 42% of its threes in a win over FSU) to contain the Gators. FLORIDA is the pick.

The Gators will likely be without sixth man Mike Rosario (9.4 PPG, 42% 3-pt FG), who is struggling with a back injury, but UF has more than enough perimeter firepower without him in Kenny Boynton (18.7 PPG, 46% 3-pt FG), Erving Walker (14.5 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Bradley Beal (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG). The interior will again be a question mark against an FSU team that has good size. C Patric Young (11.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG) will have to hold his own against the likes of 6-foot-10 Bernard James (10.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.6 BPG) and 6-foot-11 Xavier Gibson (8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG).

The Seminoles will need their perimeter players to perform on both ends of the court to hang close. Michael Snaer (13.2 PPG) is trying to carry the offense this year, but is shooting only 39.5% from the field. SF Okaro White (8.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and guards Deividas Dulkys (7.5 PPG) and Luke Loucks (6.5 PPG) have been equally inconsistent on the offensive end, as the ‘Noles shoot just 31.8% from three as a team. They’re 1-3 SU and ATS away from Tallahassee this year.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-02

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Betting Lines: Oklahoma -3.5, Total: 45

With Texas embarrassing 34-12 home loss to UCLA last week, this year’s Red River Rivalry lost some luster. But other than its big win over FSU in Week 2, Oklahoma has struggled to an 0-3 ATS record against Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati.

Texas has not looked sharp on offense all season, culminating with last week’s four-turnover first half. Highly-touted sophomore QB Garrett Gilbert has just four TD and four INT, and Fozzy Whittaker is the only Longhorns player averaging more than 35 rushing yards per game (45.5). And after giving up a total of 132 rushing yards in its first three wins, Texas allowed 264 rushing yards to UCLA.

Oklahoma has had no such trouble on offense, ranking 10th among FBS schools with 309 passing YPG. QB Landry Jones has nine TD and three picks, and WR Ryan Broyles is playing at the top of his game with a nation-leading 41 catches (with 482 yds and four TD). Speaking of stars, RB DeMarco Murray already has 547 total yards (436 rushing, 111 receiving) and eight total touchdowns. But none of these three players did much in last year’s 16-13 Red River loss. Jones threw 19 incomplete passes including two picks, Broyles had just two catches and Murray rushed for minus-3 yards (although he did rack up 116 receiving yards).

Texas has won four of the past five meetings with OU, including the ugly win last year where the teams combined for eight turnovers and 21 penalties. More importantly, Texas is also 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch.

Here are some NCAAF betting trends to consider before submitting your Red River Rivalry wagers:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. (77-33 over the last 10 seasons.) (70%, +40.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas head coach Mack Brown is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 42.4, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Brown is 22-6 OVER (+15.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 39.4, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Now that you have some of the key numbers for this Saturday’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com for your college football betting pleasure.

CFL: CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown
2010-07-14

The first two weeks of the 2010 Canadian Football League season have been dominated by underdogs, as three of the four favorites in each week not only failed to cover the pointspread, but lost outright as well. Another four games are on tap for this weekend. Let’s take a quick look at the lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com, and the key betting info for each contest.
Wednesday, 7/14/2010
(411) CALGARY at (412) TORONTO 7:30 PM
Line: Calgary by 6, Total: 48.5
Toronto was one of the surprise underdog winners of Week 2, upsetting Winnipeg 36-34, despite being outgained by a whopping 513-321 margin. In two games, the Argonauts have already allowed 1,013 yards of offense to their opponents. Fortunately, for this early week Wednesday contest, they’ll have the benefit of playing in front of the home folks for the first time this season. They’ll also have an extra day of rest over Calgary, with the Stampeders having played just this past Saturday.
Speaking of surprises, Calgary has to be considered a mild one at this point, one of two 2-0 teams in the CFL and leading the league in points allowed at 19.0 PPG. The Stampeders’ most recent win was a 23-22 decision at Hamilton, as they pulled the upset as 2-1/2 point dogs.
This will be the second meeting in three weeks between Calgary and Toronto, with Calgary having won the season opener at home 30-16. Here the Stampeders will be looking for a 7th straight win over the Argonauts (5-1 ATS). Toronto has had all kinds of trouble penetrating Calgary’s defense, averaging just 12.5 PPG during the skid.
Friday, 7/16/2010
(413) WINNIPEG at (414) HAMILTON 7:00 PM
Line: Hamilton by 3.5, Total: 54
Winnipeg is averaging a scintillating 41.5 PPG and 507.5 YPG on offense in its first two contests but unfortunately has just one win to show for it. New quarterback Buck Pierce has been everything head coach Paul LaPolice could ask for in his first two games with the team. Still, the Blue Bombers are stinging from the late loss to Toronto last week, a game in which they were favored by 10-1/2 points. In this divisional tilt, that upset loss leads to a powerful FoxSheets system for Friday’s tilt:
• Play On - Any team (WINNIPEG) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*)
Hamilton is one of two teams still in search of a first win and has to be concerned that it gave up 502 yards of offense to Pierce and Winnipeg in the season opener. This sets up a nice revenge spot of the Ti-Cats, perhaps negating the earlier system:
• HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAMILTON 28.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Including the 49-29 win two weeks ago at home, Winnipeg is on a 5-2 SU & ATS run in the head-to-head series with Hamilton and the last three games have sailed over the posted total. The StatFox Power Line indicates that Hamilton should be favored by 6 points in this one.
(415) MONTREAL at (416) BRITISH COLUMBIA 10:00 PM
Line: TBD
Montreal and British Columbia hook up for a battle of 1-1 teams Friday night in Vancouver. The Alouettes are expected to be a small favorite when the line gets released. Oddsmakers are awaiting the status of Lions’ QB Casey Printers, who left last Saturday’s loss to Saskatchewan with an injury. He is listed as questionable so there’s a good chance he will be able to go.
This will be the first time these teams have met since Montreal hammered B.C. 56-19 in the West Division Final last November. Still, that rout aside, this has been a very close series over the years. In fact, for as good as Montreal was in 2009, the Lions handed the Alouettes one of their three regular season losses last year and swept both meetings against the pointspread.
B.C.’s rushing attack has been the best in the CFL thus far this season in terms of average gain, 8.3 yards per attempt. At the same time, Montreal is allowing a league worst 7.8 yards per rush. In fact, the Alouettes are the league’s worst defense in several categories, including points allowed, yards passing and yards per pass attempt. That is a scary proposition for a team expected to be playing as a road favorite.
Saturday, 7/17/2010
(417) EDMONTON at (418) SASKATCHEWAN 4:00 PM
Line: Saskatchewan by 7, Total: 56
Saskatchewan is arguably the league’s best team right now, and they’ll play their second home game of the season in NFL Network’s Game of the Week on Saturday afternoon. The Roughriders are 2-0 on the season, having scored 91 points. Quarterback Darian Durant is arguably the league MVP after the first two games, as he leads a balanced offensive attack gaining a phenomenal 9.1 yards per play, including 9.9 per pass. The hot start is nothing new for the Roughriders:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.3, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is the league’s biggest disappointment to date having lost both of its games by double-digits. The Eskimos are actually outgaining opponents by 45 YPG but have turned the ball over five times while only forcing one turnover defensively.
This game boasts the highest total of the week, 56 points, but even still, most trends seem to be pointing to a shootout, including…
• SASKATCHEWAN is 73-42 OVER (+26.8 Units) in home games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.3, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 1*)

CFB: Papa Johns Bowl - CONNECTICUT vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (2:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-04

The Papa Johns Bowl matches the SEC and the Big East as Connecticut takes on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 5-point favorites after opening at -4.5, thanks to 71% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com going their way. The Huskies have been nearly automatic though for bettors this season, and it would be crazy to think they won’t be motivated to compete here.

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 against the number, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies in the Papa John’s Bowl will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn plays as a 5-point underdog to South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country, loaded with eight eventual bowl teams. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS in those games. Strangely, this is just the fourth time this season that head coach Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 SU and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS prior.

If you believe in the old saying “a trend is your friend,” then there’s only one way to go here. UConn was a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in 2009. Picked to finished near the bottom of the Big East standings, head coach Randy Edsall’s crew overachieved on its way to a third consecutive bowl game. Spurrier and South Carolina continued their recent trend of fading down the stretch, losing four of their last six to ruin a 5-1 start. In fact, the Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS on the road in the second half of the season over the last three years, including an average loss of 37-17. There really isn’t a stand-out player of note on either of these teams and statistically, both are ordinary on both sides of the ball. Factoring all that in, the best play is to follow the trend and take the points.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Randy Edsall is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) as an underdog as the coach of CONNECTICUT. The average score was CONNECTICUT 19.9, OPPONENT 30.4 - (Rating = 1*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CONNECTICUT) - in major bowl games (played in January), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (58-24 since 1992.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)

PAPA JOHN'S BOWL Series Trend: The Big East has won all three previous games of the Papa John’s Bowl series, being favored each time by at least 5.5-points. The ATS ledger is split 1-1-1. All three previous games went UNDER the total. This will be the first time that the game is played in January and the first time that the Big East is the underdog.

CFB: Independence Bowl - TEXAS A&M vs. GEORGIA (5:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-28

SEC teams have had their way in the Independence Bowl in recent years, winning eight of their L10 appearances while going 7-3 ATS. Georgia will look to continue that trend when it takes on Texas A&M here. The Bulldogs are a touchdown favorite and boast one of the best recent bowl records of any college team, 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 1998. For that reason, nearly 2/3 of bettors at Sportsbook.com are backing Georgia at last check.

Georgia was just 7-5 SU and 4-7 ATS this season and hasn’t played in a lower-tier bowl game since 2001. Overall in non-conference road games, Georgia is on an impressive run of 21-6 ATS. Texas A&M reaches Shreveport with a 6-6 SU and 6-5 ATS mark, but is riding the momentum of a near-upset of Texas. The Aggies have struggled in bowl games, winning one of their last eight.

Texas A&M had one of the most explosive offenses nationally this season, ranking in the top 25 in passing (292.7 yards per game), rushing (190.4 YPG), total offense (465.3 YPG) and scoring (33.9 points per game). Georgia averaged 27.7 points per game. It is no secret that the Aggies are going to put points on the board and defensively will allow the Bulldogs to do the same. This is bad news for Texas A&M fans. Georgia is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when they score 29-35 points since 1992. With an almost entirely new coaching staff on the defensive side of the ball for the bowl game, expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion and cover the number. Prediction: Georgia 34, Texas A&M 24

INDEPENDENCE BOWL Series Trend: After a long run of dominance by underdogs in the Independence Bowl in the late ‘90’s and early ‘00’s, favorites have turned the tide, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03. Strangely, the margins of victory have not been indicative of frequent favorite covers, with all but one of the 10 games being decided by a TD or less. SEC teams are on a 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS run in the game. All signs appear to be pointing to Georgia.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
TEXAS A&M is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992. The average score was TEXAS A&M 17.0, OPPONENT 28.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (GEORGIA) - in minor bowl games (played in December). (34-10 since 1992.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)

The Independence Bowl kicks off at 5:00 PM ET on Monday, don’t forget to get your wagers in before that time. Visit the LIVE ODDS page for all the latest options.

CFB: Virginia at Clemson (3:30 PM ET, ABC)
2009-11-20

The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should Clemson falter. The Tigers will be taking on a struggling Virginia team, though laying 21-points in any conference contest can be dangerous. That hasn’t stopped nearly 80% of bettors from backing the heavily favored hosts according to the Sportsbook.com BETTING TRENDS page.

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson boasts skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere in running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford. The Tigers have alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites.

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to its third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20’s in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install a spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn’t happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity, explaining the 118th ranking nationally in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on a 12-4 ATS run in the series.

The StatFox Forecaster projects a Virginia cover. Is that enough to back a team that looks dead & buried? Bettors at Sportsbook.com are loudly voicing “No!”.

CFB: Central Michigan favored to stay on MAC title path
2009-11-12

The CMU Chippewas will attempt to keep a perfect MAC record (5-0) intact hosting Toledo. Their 31-10 loss to Boston College is excusable; being a difficult place to play and it was Central Michigan’s third straight road game. This game matters more though, as the last thing Central Michigan (7-2, SU&ATS) needs is a loss with Northern Illinois nipping at their heels and set to square off in 16 days. The hosts are a 17-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, and bettors seem to be expecting a high-scoring blowout, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.

Most coaches have a good sense of what their team needs and CMU head coach Butch Jones felt the extra few days off was a benefit to his squad. “It was a good break … we were one of the teams in the country who have gone nine straight weeks without a break,” Jones said. “There were bumps and bruises and just the wear and tear of the week-in and week-out stress of playing football, plus six of our nine games were on the road. Four of our five games in October were on the road.”

Quarterback Dan LeFevour will look to get his offense back on track for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are believed to have a rather potent unit, yet a closer look reveals a slightly different story. Nothing wrong with averaging 30.6 points per game, however their opponents allow 29.1 PPG. The offense averages 390.8 yards per game, fourth in the MAC, facing opposing teams that concede 380 YPG, hardly overwhelming. The key number for Central Michigan is 28, since they are 8-1 ATS when they cross that point total.

The Chippewas and LeFevour are averaging 50.7 PPG at Kelly-Shorts Stadium and take on leaky Toledo defense being burned for 37.4 points an outing. The Rockets (4-5 SU&ATS) demise from the elite in the MAC has been on this side of the ball and no answers have been forthcoming. If Toledo faces a running team, they easily accomplish 4.9 yards per carry for over 175 YPG and if the opponent passes, plenty of holes in the secondary to throw for almost 250 YPG. The noise you hear is the Chippewas offensive players rubbing their hands together waiting to attack Rockets defense and take on Toledo who is 5-12 ATS as road underdog.

Toledo is built to pass and they really need senior Aaron Opelt throwing the pigskin after missing 2 ½ games with injured wing. He was ineffective in the 31-24 loss as five-point favorites to Miami-O and the hope is the extra time off has healed his shoulder. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Sportsbook.com has Central Michigan as 17-point favorites with the total of 61. The best way to attack the Chippewas is running the ball between the tackles like Buffalo did for 223 yards, which opens up the passing game and slows down their pass rush. Toledo is capable of putting up decent running numbers and is 10-1 ATS off a SU and ATS loss vs. opponent off a 10-point or more defeat.

The Chippewas have a good history of coming back after solid loss and are 22-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game and 6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

ESPN2 has the MAC West encounter at 8 Eastern, with Toledo is 1-4 SU and ATS vs. Central Michigan, yet offers hope with 15-8-1 ATS record in November.

The StatFox Power Line shows Central Michigan by 22, five points more than the Sportsbook line, indicating there might yet be some value on the chalk.