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FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-3) at FLORIDA GATORS (9-2)
2011-12-22

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT

Line: Florida -8.5, Total: 137

It will be a classic battle of offense versus defense when high-scoring No. 11 Florida hosts defensive-minded Florida State on Thursday night.

The Gators are currently leading the nation in offensive efficiency and are third in points per game (86.1). That’s due to the fact that they’re making more threes (11.2 per game) than anyone in the nation. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are again an elite defensive team, third in the nation in defensive efficiency (they were first last year) and have allowed more than 70 points in a game just once so far this season. But while FSU has a size advantage and will surely try to control tempo, the Gators guards should be able to take over this game. FSU is extremely turnover-prone (18.7 per game) and doesn’t guard the three-point line well enough (UConn made 44% 3-pt FG in an overtime with over the Seminoles, and Michigan State hit 42% of its threes in a win over FSU) to contain the Gators. FLORIDA is the pick.

The Gators will likely be without sixth man Mike Rosario (9.4 PPG, 42% 3-pt FG), who is struggling with a back injury, but UF has more than enough perimeter firepower without him in Kenny Boynton (18.7 PPG, 46% 3-pt FG), Erving Walker (14.5 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Bradley Beal (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG). The interior will again be a question mark against an FSU team that has good size. C Patric Young (11.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG) will have to hold his own against the likes of 6-foot-10 Bernard James (10.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.6 BPG) and 6-foot-11 Xavier Gibson (8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG).

The Seminoles will need their perimeter players to perform on both ends of the court to hang close. Michael Snaer (13.2 PPG) is trying to carry the offense this year, but is shooting only 39.5% from the field. SF Okaro White (8.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and guards Deividas Dulkys (7.5 PPG) and Luke Loucks (6.5 PPG) have been equally inconsistent on the offensive end, as the ‘Noles shoot just 31.8% from three as a team. They’re 1-3 SU and ATS away from Tallahassee this year.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-02

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Betting Lines: Oklahoma -3.5, Total: 45

With Texas embarrassing 34-12 home loss to UCLA last week, this year’s Red River Rivalry lost some luster. But other than its big win over FSU in Week 2, Oklahoma has struggled to an 0-3 ATS record against Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati.

Texas has not looked sharp on offense all season, culminating with last week’s four-turnover first half. Highly-touted sophomore QB Garrett Gilbert has just four TD and four INT, and Fozzy Whittaker is the only Longhorns player averaging more than 35 rushing yards per game (45.5). And after giving up a total of 132 rushing yards in its first three wins, Texas allowed 264 rushing yards to UCLA.

Oklahoma has had no such trouble on offense, ranking 10th among FBS schools with 309 passing YPG. QB Landry Jones has nine TD and three picks, and WR Ryan Broyles is playing at the top of his game with a nation-leading 41 catches (with 482 yds and four TD). Speaking of stars, RB DeMarco Murray already has 547 total yards (436 rushing, 111 receiving) and eight total touchdowns. But none of these three players did much in last year’s 16-13 Red River loss. Jones threw 19 incomplete passes including two picks, Broyles had just two catches and Murray rushed for minus-3 yards (although he did rack up 116 receiving yards).

Texas has won four of the past five meetings with OU, including the ugly win last year where the teams combined for eight turnovers and 21 penalties. More importantly, Texas is also 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch.

Here are some NCAAF betting trends to consider before submitting your Red River Rivalry wagers:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. (77-33 over the last 10 seasons.) (70%, +40.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas head coach Mack Brown is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 42.4, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Brown is 22-6 OVER (+15.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 39.4, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Now that you have some of the key numbers for this Saturday’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com for your college football betting pleasure.

CFL: CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown
2010-07-14

The first two weeks of the 2010 Canadian Football League season have been dominated by underdogs, as three of the four favorites in each week not only failed to cover the pointspread, but lost outright as well. Another four games are on tap for this weekend. Let’s take a quick look at the lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com, and the key betting info for each contest.
Wednesday, 7/14/2010
(411) CALGARY at (412) TORONTO 7:30 PM
Line: Calgary by 6, Total: 48.5
Toronto was one of the surprise underdog winners of Week 2, upsetting Winnipeg 36-34, despite being outgained by a whopping 513-321 margin. In two games, the Argonauts have already allowed 1,013 yards of offense to their opponents. Fortunately, for this early week Wednesday contest, they’ll have the benefit of playing in front of the home folks for the first time this season. They’ll also have an extra day of rest over Calgary, with the Stampeders having played just this past Saturday.
Speaking of surprises, Calgary has to be considered a mild one at this point, one of two 2-0 teams in the CFL and leading the league in points allowed at 19.0 PPG. The Stampeders’ most recent win was a 23-22 decision at Hamilton, as they pulled the upset as 2-1/2 point dogs.
This will be the second meeting in three weeks between Calgary and Toronto, with Calgary having won the season opener at home 30-16. Here the Stampeders will be looking for a 7th straight win over the Argonauts (5-1 ATS). Toronto has had all kinds of trouble penetrating Calgary’s defense, averaging just 12.5 PPG during the skid.
Friday, 7/16/2010
(413) WINNIPEG at (414) HAMILTON 7:00 PM
Line: Hamilton by 3.5, Total: 54
Winnipeg is averaging a scintillating 41.5 PPG and 507.5 YPG on offense in its first two contests but unfortunately has just one win to show for it. New quarterback Buck Pierce has been everything head coach Paul LaPolice could ask for in his first two games with the team. Still, the Blue Bombers are stinging from the late loss to Toronto last week, a game in which they were favored by 10-1/2 points. In this divisional tilt, that upset loss leads to a powerful FoxSheets system for Friday’s tilt:
• Play On - Any team (WINNIPEG) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*)
Hamilton is one of two teams still in search of a first win and has to be concerned that it gave up 502 yards of offense to Pierce and Winnipeg in the season opener. This sets up a nice revenge spot of the Ti-Cats, perhaps negating the earlier system:
• HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAMILTON 28.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Including the 49-29 win two weeks ago at home, Winnipeg is on a 5-2 SU & ATS run in the head-to-head series with Hamilton and the last three games have sailed over the posted total. The StatFox Power Line indicates that Hamilton should be favored by 6 points in this one.
(415) MONTREAL at (416) BRITISH COLUMBIA 10:00 PM
Line: TBD
Montreal and British Columbia hook up for a battle of 1-1 teams Friday night in Vancouver. The Alouettes are expected to be a small favorite when the line gets released. Oddsmakers are awaiting the status of Lions’ QB Casey Printers, who left last Saturday’s loss to Saskatchewan with an injury. He is listed as questionable so there’s a good chance he will be able to go.
This will be the first time these teams have met since Montreal hammered B.C. 56-19 in the West Division Final last November. Still, that rout aside, this has been a very close series over the years. In fact, for as good as Montreal was in 2009, the Lions handed the Alouettes one of their three regular season losses last year and swept both meetings against the pointspread.
B.C.’s rushing attack has been the best in the CFL thus far this season in terms of average gain, 8.3 yards per attempt. At the same time, Montreal is allowing a league worst 7.8 yards per rush. In fact, the Alouettes are the league’s worst defense in several categories, including points allowed, yards passing and yards per pass attempt. That is a scary proposition for a team expected to be playing as a road favorite.
Saturday, 7/17/2010
(417) EDMONTON at (418) SASKATCHEWAN 4:00 PM
Line: Saskatchewan by 7, Total: 56
Saskatchewan is arguably the league’s best team right now, and they’ll play their second home game of the season in NFL Network’s Game of the Week on Saturday afternoon. The Roughriders are 2-0 on the season, having scored 91 points. Quarterback Darian Durant is arguably the league MVP after the first two games, as he leads a balanced offensive attack gaining a phenomenal 9.1 yards per play, including 9.9 per pass. The hot start is nothing new for the Roughriders:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.3, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is the league’s biggest disappointment to date having lost both of its games by double-digits. The Eskimos are actually outgaining opponents by 45 YPG but have turned the ball over five times while only forcing one turnover defensively.
This game boasts the highest total of the week, 56 points, but even still, most trends seem to be pointing to a shootout, including…
• SASKATCHEWAN is 73-42 OVER (+26.8 Units) in home games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.3, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 1*)

CFB: Independence Bowl - TEXAS A&M vs. GEORGIA (5:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-28

SEC teams have had their way in the Independence Bowl in recent years, winning eight of their L10 appearances while going 7-3 ATS. Georgia will look to continue that trend when it takes on Texas A&M here. The Bulldogs are a touchdown favorite and boast one of the best recent bowl records of any college team, 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 1998. For that reason, nearly 2/3 of bettors at Sportsbook.com are backing Georgia at last check.

Georgia was just 7-5 SU and 4-7 ATS this season and hasn’t played in a lower-tier bowl game since 2001. Overall in non-conference road games, Georgia is on an impressive run of 21-6 ATS. Texas A&M reaches Shreveport with a 6-6 SU and 6-5 ATS mark, but is riding the momentum of a near-upset of Texas. The Aggies have struggled in bowl games, winning one of their last eight.

Texas A&M had one of the most explosive offenses nationally this season, ranking in the top 25 in passing (292.7 yards per game), rushing (190.4 YPG), total offense (465.3 YPG) and scoring (33.9 points per game). Georgia averaged 27.7 points per game. It is no secret that the Aggies are going to put points on the board and defensively will allow the Bulldogs to do the same. This is bad news for Texas A&M fans. Georgia is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when they score 29-35 points since 1992. With an almost entirely new coaching staff on the defensive side of the ball for the bowl game, expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion and cover the number. Prediction: Georgia 34, Texas A&M 24

INDEPENDENCE BOWL Series Trend: After a long run of dominance by underdogs in the Independence Bowl in the late ‘90’s and early ‘00’s, favorites have turned the tide, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03. Strangely, the margins of victory have not been indicative of frequent favorite covers, with all but one of the 10 games being decided by a TD or less. SEC teams are on a 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS run in the game. All signs appear to be pointing to Georgia.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
TEXAS A&M is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992. The average score was TEXAS A&M 17.0, OPPONENT 28.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (GEORGIA) - in minor bowl games (played in December). (34-10 since 1992.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)

The Independence Bowl kicks off at 5:00 PM ET on Monday, don’t forget to get your wagers in before that time. Visit the LIVE ODDS page for all the latest options.

CFB: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-04

The ACC game for all the marbles has a different flavor, as both teams are off disappointing losses to non-conference rivals and are in a rematch of earlier game. One of the teams will get a BCS berth, in the Orange Bowl. The other will be sent to a much lesser coveted and lesser paying bowl destination. The title tilt is being played at a neutral site (Tampa, FL) and oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com set the game as a pick em’. In other words, these teams are dead even, right? Well, not according to bettors, who are backing the Yellow Jackets at a 7/3 ratio.

It’s a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship. In that contest, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson, with RB Anthony Allen scoring on an 82-yard run and Jerrard Tarrant taking a punt back 85 yards. The Tigers weathered the storm and settled in and scored the game’s next 27 points to take the lead. The Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) reestablished their option offense and put together two drives that resulted in field goals, including the winner with under a minute to escape 30-27. Georgia Tech is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS vs. Clemson last six meetings.

Georgia Tech’s option offense had stung opponents for 39 points per game during its eight game winning streak before losing to rival Georgia. One edge they have enjoyed is teams had only one week to prepare for unique offense. Though Clemson will have the same time frame having played South Carolina last week, they’ve had enough time to breakdown tape of their earlier matchup. Coach Paul Johnson, whose 19-6 (15-7 ATS) mark through two seasons is the best in Tech history, has shown his offense can work playing against better competition. The Yellow Jackets are perfect 8-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards a game over the last two seasons.

Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS) has finally broken thru, winning seven of eight contests and playing like a team which finally exceeded expectations. Coach Dabo Swinney was finally able to sell the upperclassmen on the idea of being accountable for actions. Seniors like C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford have been among the leaders that by example both verbally and by actions. One noticeable difference also has been the defense. Clemson’s had numerous players with all-ACC ability, but this group is No. 1 in total defense in the league and 14th nationally. The Tigers are 2-11 ATS when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

Clemson should have learned something from Georgia’s win, pound away at Yellow Jackets front seven. The Tigers have three running backs each with a different style, make it work and score touchdowns. If Clemson doesn’t run effectively and is forced to pass, they drop to 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in last game.

Interesting to note in common opponents Clemson is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) winning by almost 17 points a game, while Georgia Tech is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 4.2 PPG.

The StatFox Power Line shows Georgia Tech by 3.

CFB: Central Michigan favored to stay on MAC title path
2009-11-12

The CMU Chippewas will attempt to keep a perfect MAC record (5-0) intact hosting Toledo. Their 31-10 loss to Boston College is excusable; being a difficult place to play and it was Central Michigan’s third straight road game. This game matters more though, as the last thing Central Michigan (7-2, SU&ATS) needs is a loss with Northern Illinois nipping at their heels and set to square off in 16 days. The hosts are a 17-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, and bettors seem to be expecting a high-scoring blowout, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.

Most coaches have a good sense of what their team needs and CMU head coach Butch Jones felt the extra few days off was a benefit to his squad. “It was a good break … we were one of the teams in the country who have gone nine straight weeks without a break,” Jones said. “There were bumps and bruises and just the wear and tear of the week-in and week-out stress of playing football, plus six of our nine games were on the road. Four of our five games in October were on the road.”

Quarterback Dan LeFevour will look to get his offense back on track for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are believed to have a rather potent unit, yet a closer look reveals a slightly different story. Nothing wrong with averaging 30.6 points per game, however their opponents allow 29.1 PPG. The offense averages 390.8 yards per game, fourth in the MAC, facing opposing teams that concede 380 YPG, hardly overwhelming. The key number for Central Michigan is 28, since they are 8-1 ATS when they cross that point total.

The Chippewas and LeFevour are averaging 50.7 PPG at Kelly-Shorts Stadium and take on leaky Toledo defense being burned for 37.4 points an outing. The Rockets (4-5 SU&ATS) demise from the elite in the MAC has been on this side of the ball and no answers have been forthcoming. If Toledo faces a running team, they easily accomplish 4.9 yards per carry for over 175 YPG and if the opponent passes, plenty of holes in the secondary to throw for almost 250 YPG. The noise you hear is the Chippewas offensive players rubbing their hands together waiting to attack Rockets defense and take on Toledo who is 5-12 ATS as road underdog.

Toledo is built to pass and they really need senior Aaron Opelt throwing the pigskin after missing 2 ½ games with injured wing. He was ineffective in the 31-24 loss as five-point favorites to Miami-O and the hope is the extra time off has healed his shoulder. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Sportsbook.com has Central Michigan as 17-point favorites with the total of 61. The best way to attack the Chippewas is running the ball between the tackles like Buffalo did for 223 yards, which opens up the passing game and slows down their pass rush. Toledo is capable of putting up decent running numbers and is 10-1 ATS off a SU and ATS loss vs. opponent off a 10-point or more defeat.

The Chippewas have a good history of coming back after solid loss and are 22-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game and 6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

ESPN2 has the MAC West encounter at 8 Eastern, with Toledo is 1-4 SU and ATS vs. Central Michigan, yet offers hope with 15-8-1 ATS record in November.

The StatFox Power Line shows Central Michigan by 22, five points more than the Sportsbook line, indicating there might yet be some value on the chalk.